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81.
陕西关中地区城市灾害评价 总被引:8,自引:2,他引:8
本文在详细分析关中地区六个大中城市的主要自然灾害和城市地质灾害的基础上,分别评价了各种灾害造成的经济损失,各个城市的灾害危险性、易损性和抗灾能力,并结合防灾对策对城市进行了综合分类。 相似文献
82.
Martha W. Gilliland Lee Becker Ralph Cady Joe Gabig James Gilley Richard A. Kern Arley Larson Quang M. Nguyen William Powers Raymond Supalla 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1985,21(2):281-290
Substantial conflict exists over water management and allocation in the Platte River Basin of Nebraska. An interdisciplinary computer simulation model, representing the water quantity, water quality, environmental, and economic dimensions of the conflict, was developed in order to analyze the tradeoffs among allocation scenarios. Most importantly, decisionmakers and interest groups were involved in model development. Simulation results for a base case and two scenarios are presented. One scenario favors protection of instream flow for wildlife; the other favors water diversions for agriculture. Impacts of the instream flow scenario, as measured by the amount of land irrigated, groundwater levels, the amount of wildlife habitat for cranes and catfish, and net agricultural benefits did not differ greatly from those of the base case. However, impacts of the diversion scenario were substantial. On the negative side, instream flows and wildlife habitat declined an average of 39 percent; while, on the positive side, groundwater levels and net agricultural benefits each increased 6 percent. The modeling process was successful insofar as it promoted an understanding among the highly diverse interest groups of the systems nature of the Basin. One agreement on a water diversion schedule among three of the parties has been reached, partly as a result of this process. More comprehensive compromises have not yet been forged. Our experience, however, indicates that modeling success at the policymaking level depends more on the extent to which the policymakers understand the model than it does on model sophistication. 相似文献
83.
Rochelle L. Rittmaster David K. Mueller 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1986,22(1):81-89
ABSTRACT: A study was performed to identify sources of solute loading to the Dirty Devil River and its major tributaries, in southeastern Utah. A primary goal was to determine the contribution of gypsum dissolution to total dissolved solids concentration, and its potential increase in the future if salinity control measures are instituted. Synoptic field data were collected during the low flow period in October 1983. Data were analyzed using the geochemistry models WATEQF and BALANCE to postulate mineral reactions leading to solute loading. Three known sources of solute loading, involving two different geochemical mechanisms, were clearly discernable. Two additional areas of possible gypsum dissolution were located. 相似文献
84.
John E. Keith Rangesan Narayanan 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1988,24(6):1247-1256
ABSTRACF: Examination of a series of studies of the economically efficient water allocations in the Upper Colorado River, Yellowstone River, and Great Basins indicate that water is not a serious general physical constraint on the development of energy resources, so long as public institutions do not hinder the exchange of water rights in markets. Energy development will cause limited impacts on other water-using sectors, principally agriculture. There appears to be little reason to develop large-scale water storage facilities, even during periods of reduced water production. Water storage developments appear to be necessary only when institutional constraints severely restrict water rights markets and transfers. 相似文献
85.
A hierarchical approach to fisheries planning and modeling in the Columbia River Basin 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The Columbia River Basin is the scene of a massive effort to restore populations of Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) and steelhead (O. mykiss). Efficient restoration is confounded by a high level of complexity, competing sociopolitical goals and values, and uncertainty
about key system properties. Simulation models and other tools of systems analysis are important to development of a comprehensive,
regionally acceptable strategy. Hierarchy theory provides a useful paradigm for organized complexity within the Columbia Basin
and the basis for a trilevel hierarchical structure for organizing and integrating models. Life-stage models compose the most
basic simulation units at the lowest level in the proposed hierarchical modeling structure. Each life-stage model simulates
a distinct period in the life cycle of anadromous salmonids. Population models at the intermediate level simulate the complete
life cycles of salmon and steelhead populations. At the highest level in the hierarchy, interpopulation models simulate extensive,
long-term processes that affect multiple species and stocks. A hierarchical system of models is preferable to a single model
or to a group of models lacking formal structure. A principal advantage is that models have the correct spatial and temporal
resolution for analyzing questions at different scales. A hierarchical structure also facilitates the flow of information
among models, and aids in understanding the impacts of uncertainty. Constructing a hierarchy of models should involve both
bottom-up and top-down perspectives that maintain logical consistency among models, while allowing unique model structures
appropriate for each level in the hierarchy. 相似文献
86.
Robert B. Leonard Donald C. Signor Donald G. Jorgensen John O. Helgesen 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》1983,19(6):903-912
ABSTRACT: The Dakota aquifer, composed of the Dakota Sandstone and stratigraphically equivalent sandstone units of Cretaceous age, is the upper-most regional aquifer underlying the extensively developed High Plains aquifer of the midwestern United States. The concentration of dissolved solids in ground water of the Dakota aquifer ranges from less than 500 milligrams per liter in calcium bicarbonate type water in the eastern outcrop area to more than 100,000 milligrams per liter in sodium chloride type oilfield brine in the Denver Basin to the west. Preliminary maps showing the distribution of dissolved solids confirm the complex nature of the Dakota aquifer as inferred from stratigraphic and hydraulic evidence. Extensive vertical leakage through confining layers, local recharge at the truncated eastern boundary, and a barrier to recharge along the western edge of the Denver Basin are consistent with the distribution of hydraulic head and dissolved solids. 相似文献
87.
ABSTRACT: Kriging utilizes a statistically based procedure of spatial interpolation that incorporates the spatial correlation structure of the phenomenon, and provides an error estimate. Kriging was applied to a total of 141 transmissivity values in an attempt to quantify the transmissivity distribution of the Santa Fe aquifer in Mesilla Bolson. New Mexico. The analysis produced contour maps of estimated transmissivity values and associated estimation variances. Through variogram analysis and fitting of an exponential variogrsm to 141 natural log of transmissivity (InT) values, the range was determined to be 3 miles, the average variance 2.74 (σInT= 1.65) with a mean of 8.65. Kriged estimates were generally lower when compared to estimates based on available transmissivity maps. 相似文献
88.
Land-cover change in upper Barataria Basin estuary,Louisiana, 1972-1992: increases in Wetland area 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
The Barataria Basin, Louisiana, USA, is an extensive wetland and coastal estuary system of great economic and intrinsic value.
Although high rates of wetland loss along the coastal margin of the Barataria Basin have been well documented, little information
exists on whether freshwater wetlands in the upper basin have changed. Our objectives were to quantify land-cover change in
the upper basin over 20 years from 1972–1992 and to determine land-cover transition rates among land-cover types. Using 80-m
resolution Landsat MSS data from the North American Landscape Characterization (NALC) data archive, we classified images from
three time steps (1972, 1985, 1992) into six land-cover types: agriculture, urban, bottomland hardwood forest, swamp forest,
freshwater marsh, and open water. Significant changes in land cover occurred within the upper Barataria Basin over the study
period. Urban land increased from 8% to 17% of the total upper basin area, primarily due to conversions from agricultural
land, and to a lesser degree, bottomland forest. Swamp forest increased from 30% to 41%, associated with conversions from
bottomland hardwood forest and freshwater marsh. Overall, bottomland forest decreased 38% and total wetland area increased
21%. Within the upper Barataria, increases in total wetland area may be due to land subsidence. Based on our results, if present
trends in the reduction of bottomland forest land cover were to continue, the upper Barataria Basin may have no bottomland
hardwood forests left by the year 2025, as it is subjected to multiple stressors both in the higher elevations (from urbanization)
and lower elevations (most likely from land subsidence). These results suggest that changes in the upper freshwater portions
of coastal estuaries can be large and quite different from patterns observed in the more saline coastal margins. 相似文献
89.
Joie C. Taylor Nick van de Giesen Tammo S. Steenhuis 《Journal of the American Water Resources Association》2006,42(4):1113-1126
ABSTRACT: Water resource management in West Africa is often a complicated process due to inadequate resources, climatic extremes, and insufficient hydrological information. Insufficient data hinder sustainable watershed management practices, one of the top priorities in the Volta River Basin. This research properly fills in missing data by modeling the hydrological distribution in the Volta River Basin. On average, discharge gages across the basin are missing 20 percent of their monthly data over 20 years. Two methods were used to supplement missing data: a statistically linear model and a conceptual hydrological model. A linear equation, developed from the regression of precipitation and runoff, was used to evaluate the quality of existing data. The hydrological model separates the system into root and groundwater zones. Measured values were used to calibrate the hydrological model and to validate the statistical model. The quality of existing data was analyzed and organized for usability. Accuracy of the hydrological model was also evaluated for its effectiveness using R2 and standard error. It was found that the hydrological model was an improvement from the linear model on a monthly basis; R2 values improved by as much as 0.5 and monthly error decreased. Monthly predictions of the hydrological model were used to fill gaps of measured data sets. 相似文献
90.